Local Market Trends

Home prices posted near-record gains throughout the Cascade foothills region in 2005 as a rising-interest-rate climate and a stable supply of available homes continued to fuel buyer worries of declining home affordability.

While prices were up, total sales also were up throughout the southern Clackamas County region, even though sales in many rural parts of the region sagged. Preliminary figures from local Realtors® show that the number of Realtor®-assisted sales in the southern region of the county rose almost 9 percent in 2005, with most of that increase coming from the county's incorporated cities. The Colton area, which is primarily rural, also saw a substantial gain, with sales increasing 20 percent.

Strong competition for available properties also led to shorter marketing times, and homes tended to sell at or near their owners' asking prices. Dozens of owners even made decisions either to get their asking prices or pull their homes from the market and wait for prices to go still higher.

Owners selling without a broker probably also fared better this year than most years because of the unusually quick market times. Historically, people who sell “For Sale By Owner” are successful only a small percentage of the time, according to national statistics.

Statistics compiled by The Foothills Report from Realtor® transactions in 2005 show 1,980 sales were completed in the south county region. This region includes both incorporated and unincorporated areas of the communities of Oregon City, Molalla, Canby, Barlow, Wilsonville, Beavercreek, Mulino and Colton, as well as small portions of unincorporated communities near Aurora, Hubbard, Woodburn and Mt. Angel. Realtors® assisted 1,819 sales in the same area in 2004. 

Sales comparisons published in The Foothills Report in the Winter 2005 issue did not include data for Wilsonville or Colton, nor for the unincorporated areas of the county near Aurora, Hubbard, Woodburn and Mt. Angel.

Whatever the results in terms of the numbers of sales for the region's various communities, prices everywhere were up dramatically.

Molalla's median home price broke the $200,000 mark for the first time ever. This price, which included sales both in and out of the city limits, rose from $164,975 in 2004 to $202,000 in 2005, an increase of 22.4 percent. A median-priced home is one whose price falls exactly in the middle of all homes sold, with half of the homes sold being priced higher, and half being priced lower.

Yet, total sales in Molalla declined in 2005 as builders introduced fewer new homes to the market. The Molalla area saw a 9.8-percent decline in sales overall, from 286 in 2004 to 258 last year.

While total sales here declined, sales of new homes plummeted, falling more than 56 percent, from 105 in 2004 to 46 last year. Sales of existing homes balanced out a substantial portion of the drop by rising 17 percent.

The average home sold in Molalla in 2005 was 21 years old, and had 1,749 square feet of total floor space. The average price per square foot was $133.90. The size of the average lot sold was 3.09 acres, largely due to the substantial size of some of the rural properties that surround the City of Molalla. The median lot size was 0.20 acres.

The time from entry of a property into the multiple listing database until contracting with a buyer, or average market time, was 59 days in Molalla.

The median price in Mulino shot up just over 20 percent, closing out 2005 at $293,000. The number of homes sold here was 41, down 3 from the number sold in 2004. The average home sold was 35 years old and had 1,890 square feet of total floor space. The average price per square foot was $165.44, and the average lot size was 7.26 acres. The average market time in Mulino also was 59 days.

Meanwhile, the median price in Beavercreek was up almost 27 percent, finishing the year at $338,000. The number of sales was flat at 58, the same number as in 2004. The average home here was 30 years old and had 2,085 square feet of gross floor space. The average price per square foot was $174.53, and the average lot size was 6.85 acres. The average market time was 94 days.

Colton saw the sharpest decline in average market time in 2005. It took 152 days to find a buyer in 2004. That fell to just 68 days in 2005. Colton price gains were more modest than those in other areas, but still posted a healthy 10.3-percent increase. The median price rose to $247,000. The average home sold was 38 years old and had 1,714 square feet of total floor space on 7.75 acres. The average price per square foot was $158.66.

The biggest sales growth last year took place in Oregon City, where new home sales were up 56 percent, and sales of existing homes were up 21 percent. Total sales were 966 in 2005, with 172 new homes sold. The previous year, 766 homes were sold, of which 110 were newly built. The median price in 2005 was $269,995, up just over 17 percent from the previous year. Preliminary estimates show the average market time near 55 days.

Canby sales remained flat, rising by only two units. But Canby prices rose by double digits. The median price in 2004 was $220,000, jumping to $250,000 in 2005 with a total of 311 homes sold. Preliminary estimates here show an average market time last year of about 50 days.

In Wilsonville, The 2005 "Street of Dreams" probably helped push home price statistics even higher than they otherwise would have been. The median price was $356,750, a 27-percent increase over 2004. The number of homes sold last year was 276, contrasted with 256 in 2004. Preliminary estimates show average market time here near 60 days for the year.

Table of Year-End Market Results, 2005

Month	Units Listed	Listed Volume	Listed Average	Units Sold	Sold Volume	Sold Average	Rough DOM¹
January	176	58,776,256	333,956	117	32,138,262	274,686	63
February	186	68,490,036	368,226	102	26,258,166	257,433	67
March	208	75,765,248	364,256	174	48,553,308	279,042	59
April	240	85,435,680	355,982	186	58,465,008	314,328	56
May	250	87,543,250	350,173	177	51,476,202	290,826	45
June	282	109,491,576	388,268	183	59,347,998	324,306	39
July	258	94,603,440	366,680	178	60,107,040	337,680	40
August	265	102,824,240	388,016	244	80,179,620	328,605	32
September	225	80,035,425	355,713	187	71,625,114	383,022	42
October	172	61,857,220	359,635	142	42,673,698	300,519	34
November	171	63,511,110	371,410	141	46,783,941	331,801	41
December	126	46,138,554	366,179	149	50,398,864	338,247	43
Totals:	2,559	934,472,015	365,171	1,980	628,007,221	317,175	46

Total Listed: 2,560	Sold Units: 1,980	Remaining Units: 579	Inventory² Accum: 3.51
Min Sold Price: $67,100	Median Sold Price: $270,000	Average Sold Price: $317,175	Max Sold Price: $3,204,500
Source:  Regional Multiple Listing Service, Portland, Ore.
1. Rough days on market. Actual DOM is longer. Rough DOM varies due to reporting inconsistencies among brokers, and is used only to analyze market trends. 2. Inventory Accumulation represents the amount of time, in months, that would be required to sell all existing inventory if no new listings were received. The equation to calculate Inventory Accumulation is A = R ÷ [S ÷ M], where A is Inventory Accumulation, R is the number of remaining units, S is the number of sold units, and M is the number of months in the reporting period.