FoothillsReport.com

Spring 2008

The Foothills ReportTM
Authoritative source for real estate news & statistics of NW Oregon's East Willamette Valley region

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Craig Loughridge, GRI
Real Estate Broker
503-632-8258 Bus.
503-349-6892 Cell

2008 Real Estate Market Forecast

Local Market Trends
Recently Sold Properties
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Local Market Trends

The sky isn't falling, but it looks like home prices are.

Prices for single-family homes throughout many areas of Oregon's North Willamette Valley continued to rise during much of 2007, and prices finished the year ahead of where they had been in 2006. As 2007 wound down, however, prices in most communities were declining, and the number of sales had dropped dramatically compared to the previous year.

Even after adjusting for differences in home square footage, average home prices in the two most recent calendar quarters combined fell nearly 10 percent in Molalla, Oregon City and Aumsville, and nearly 7 percent in SW Portland, Silverton, Estacada and the Aloha/Beaverton area.

Home prices are expected to decline further in coming months, continuing a trend from the first quarter of 2008, when prices dropped an average 3.2 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007 in 19 North Valley communities. Overall, the number of sales in these communities fell nearly 30 percent in the same January-to-March period compared to the same period of 2007.

Though the trend has been downward, a few communities still saw year-over-year appreciation in home prices for the first quarter. The median price for Colton, northeast of Molalla, rose 12.3 percent, the only double-digit gain. However, the number of Colton homes sold was so small in both quarters—only five—that the numbers may not comprise a large enough sample to be representative of the Colton market generally.

While all of the areas in the table below have recently seen some quarterly declines in price, southeast Portland, Tigard, Silverton and central Salem still had year-over-year gains from the first quarter of 2007 to 2008. The median home price for southeast Portland rose a modest 2.8 percent, while the median price rose 4.2 percent in central Salem, 4.6 percent in Tigard and 8.2 percent in Silverton.

The median price falls exactly in the middle of prices for all homes sold in a given area, with half of the homes being priced lower, and half being priced higher.

The only significant increase in the number of sales was in Wilsonville, where the number of homes sold in the first quarter was up 17.9 percent from the first quarter of 2007. Beavercreek sales were up 60 percent, but this only represented a change from five sales in the first three months of 2007 to eight sales at the same time this year. As with Colton, these numbers are probably too small to be statistically significant.

Data in the table below reflect first-quarter sales of homes in 19 of North Willamette Valley communities.

Area

Median Price

Units
Listed
Avg. List Price($) Units
Sold
Avg. Sold Price($)

Sale Time¹

(wks)

2007 Median Price($) Q1 2007 Units Sold Q1
Aloha/Beaverton 261,900 815 362,518 291 312,709 19 319,494 406
Aumsville 205,000 47 283,074 11 205,316 13 212,000 21
Beavercreek 475,000 22 658,207 8 449,425 20 392,000 5
Canby 288,000 117 362,500 33 297,830 23 299,950 57
Colton 365,000 18 379,947 5 324,380 27 325,000 5
Estacada 292,000 50 446,778 12 353,750 24 324,950 17
Keizer 200,000 173 263,230 69 220,142 17 200,500 83
Lake Oswego 595,000 377 861,562 94 712,227 22 603,500 127
Molalla 230,111 109 368,698 34 246,335 15 245,000 57
Mulino 310,000 14 513,807 3 288,000 20 320,000 7
Oregon City 297,500 399 454,023 122 327,222 23 310,000 145
Portland SE 277,500 890 315,278 374 309,240 13 270,000 571
Portland SW 400,000 479 594,672 185 488,554 18 429,450 232
Salem, Central 159,250 113 169,919 70 161,063 15 152,850 90
Salem, Suburban NE 189,600 119 251,003 46 200,182 17 194,900 77
Silverton 265,000 111 354,450 21 260,260 23 245,000 47
Tigard 361,950 432 423,489 131 376,010 18 346,000 217
West Linn 452,500 263 646,560 68 537,735 24 466,000 107
Wilsonville 377,852 120 521,655 66 443,372 18 431,520 56

Totals:              315,412 4,668 441,980 1,643 359,659 18 325,743 2,327

Total Listed: 4,668 Sold Units: 1,643 Remaining Units: 3,025
Average List Price: $441,980 Average Sold Price: $359,659 Inventory² Accum: 5.52

1. "Sale Time" is estimated based on sales reported by all brokers and firms throughout the region (does not include market time for properties that did not sell).

2. Inventory Accumulation; represents the amount of time, in months, that would be required to sell all existing inventory if no other listings were received. The equation to calculate Inventory Accumulation is A = R ÷ [S ÷ M], where A is Inventory Accumulation, R is the number of remaining units, S is the number of sold units, and M is the number of months in the reporting period.

NOTE:  Inventory Accumulation and Sale Time are used only to analyze market trends. Values given may vary somewhat from exact market conditions due to inconsistencies in data reporting by some brokers.


To get a better picture of the real estate market in your specific community or neighborhood, call Craig Loughridge at 503-632-8258 or visit nwhomepro.com to contact Craig via e-mail.

 

Craig Loughridge has been an Oregon-licensed real estate practitioner and consultant since 1999. He has represented buyers and sellers in dozens of real estate transactions involving millions of dollars worth of residential, agricultural and investment properties. He is a graduate of the Oregon Realtor® Institute, and a member of the elite Real Estate Buyer's Agent Council. He can be reached at 503-632-8258.
 

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