FoothillsReport.com

Winter 2009

The Foothills ReportTM
Authoritative source for real estate news & statistics of NW Oregon's East Willamette Valley region

Copyright © 2009
All Rights Reserved

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Craig Loughridge, GRI
Real Estate Broker
503-632-8258 Office
503-349-6892 Cell

2009 Real Estate Market Forecast

News Briefs
Local Market Trends
Recently Sold Properties
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Local Market Trends

Real estate prices fell sharply in northwestern Oregon during the fourth quarter of 2008, closing out the year with sales and prices down in all communities tracked by The Foothills Report.

Data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service revealed the first such general decline in real estate sales and prices in the history of the organization, which began tracking real estate statistics around the Portland Metropolitan area in 1992.

The drop in fourth-quarter sales approached 30 percent in the 19 communities tracked by The Foothills Report compared to the same quarter in 2007. At the same time, the median home price fell nearly 15 percent. Prices fell for both new and re-sale homes.

The biggest reason for the drop was likely a glut of housing inventory, resulting from a negative consumer outlook that has been keeping homes on the market longer while new listings have continued to be added.

Regionwide, more than 50,000 new listings were added in all of 2008. While this represented a drop of nearly 9 percent from 2007, sales for the year fell by 32 percent.

Despite all the news of struggling home builders and corporate bankruptcies, enough local builders remained in business in 2008 to keep completing thousands of homes throughout the North Willamette Valley. From Aloha and Hillsboro to Oregon City and Salem, some developments slowed or stopped, but others kept going full throttle, especially in lower-end projects catering to buyers looking to down-size or to find their first homes.

Prices fell most in Mulino, in south Clackamas County, and in Aumsville, in central Marion County. Though the numbers of sales were so small in each community that it's hard to call their corresponding price drops definite indicators of the local markets, the drops were eye-popping.

Prices fell 41.2 percent in Mulino from the third to the fourth quarters of 2008, after adjusting for differences in home size. In Aumsville, the drop was 25.9 percent.

While it's not unusual for quarterly prices to fall in the last quarter of a year because of seasonal slumps in home sales in November and December, seasonally adjusted median prices were down across the board. In Mulino, the fourth quarter median plummeted 43.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. In Aumsville, the drop was 38 percent.

The communities with the smallest quarterly declines were Molalla, where the size-adjusted price of a home was unchanged from the third quarter, and central Salem with a 3.8-percent quarterly slide. Still, seasonally adjusted median prices fell substantially in both areas. Molalla saw a 4.9-percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2007, while central Salem saw a 13.6-percent drop.

The median price falls exactly in the middle of prices for all homes sold in a given area, with half of the homes being priced lower, and half being priced higher.

Expect NW Oregon home prices to decline further in coming months, and likely through the end of 2009. Except as otherwise indicated, data in the table below are from 2008 fourth-quarter sales.

Area

Median Price($)

Units
Listed
Avg. List Price($) Units
Sold
Avg. Sold Price($)

Sale Time¹

(wks)

2007-Q4 Median Price($)

2007-Q4 Units Sold
Aloha/Beaverton 289,000 451 340,860 226 317,046 15 299,602 264
Aumsville 152,435 ND ND 17 162,068 16 245,850 18
Beavercreek 350,000 17 537,468 1 350,000 2 465,000 5
Canby 245,000 77 322,435 27 297,630 18 287,000 39
Colton 247,500 6 337,833 10 233,440 23 275,000 5
Estacada 260,000 33 359,666 17 263,024 17 255,000 22
Keizer 198,250 ND ND 102 218,144 14 209,900 105
Lake Oswego 555,000 198 757,568 69 627,430 15 675,000 129
Molalla 233,000 69 244,884 23 265,459 23 245,000 47
Mulino 242,000 8 636,675 6 259,250 11 428,000 7
Oregon City 275,000 233 394,278 86 309,714 18 298,000 133
Portland SE 265,627 635 303,924 343 294,233 11 278,178 495
Portland SW 368,450 300 518,534 152 457,626 13 438,500 214
Salem, Central 142,500 ND ND 109 151,196 17 165,000 114
Salem, Suburban NE 162,000 ND ND 68 165,024 24 195,900 79
Silverton 233,000 58 433,979 33 252,018 20 257,500 40
Tigard 346,125 230 380,110 107 354,702 16 350,000 150
West Linn 405,000 167 614,719 45 450,339 18 525,000 89
Wilsonville 405,500 71 522,741 27 453,248 15 470,415 50
Totals:              2,553 1,468 2,055
Change in Sales (%/yr):  -28.6 Remaining Units:  1,381* Average Sale Time:  15 wks
Average List Price: $417,691 Average Sold Price: $366,236 Inventory² Accum: 3.53

1. "Sale Time" is estimated based on sales reported by all brokers and firms throughout the region (does not include market time for properties that did not sell).

2. Inventory Accumulation represents the amount of time, in months, that would be required to sell all new listings if no other listings were received. The equation to calculate Inventory Accumulation is A = R ÷ [S ÷ M], where A is Inventory Accumulation, R is the number of remaining units, S is the number of sold units, and M is the number of months in the reporting period.

NOTE:  Inventory Accumulation and Sale Time are used only to analyze market trends. Values given may vary somewhat from exact market conditions due to inconsistencies in data reporting by some brokers.

ND = Data not available at time of publication.

* Remaining Units plus Units Sold may exceed total Units Listed due to inconsistent listing data available for some market areas. 


To get a better picture of the real estate market in your specific community or neighborhood, call Craig at 503-632-8258 or visit bybryson.com to contact Craig via e-mail.

 

Craig Loughridge has been an Oregon-licensed real estate practitioner and consultant since 1999. He has represented buyers, sellers and investors in a variety of transactions involving many millions of dollars worth of residential and agricultural real estate. He is a graduate of the Oregon Realtor® Institute, and a member of the elite Real Estate Buyer's Agent Council. He can be reached at 503-632-8258.
 

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